Top Ten predicitions for mobile in 2009: were they right?

A year ago I wrote a mu top 10 predcitions in mobile and mobile marketing for 2009. Was I right? I have marked myself on the accuracy of the predictions. Have I been too generous in my assessment? Comments welcomed!

• SMS will grow continue to grow
10/10 – according to the MDA SMS in June 08 was 6 billion and 7.7 billion in June 09, a rise of 28% (and that’s in a recession). SMS marketing has followed suit.

* Bluetooth marketing will grow
7/10 – It hasn’t been the stuff of headlines, but during the last year Bluetooth marketing has been rolled out in a number of commuter networks and shopping centres. For many of these public networks the focus has been on vouchering to drive sales. With an average download rate of 5% of footfall, expect to see the Bluetooth marketing trend continuing.

• QR will become more commonplace
5/10 – the problem is still that many handsets do not have the readers installed. However, some high profile brands have conducted campaigns in the last year. Such as Pepsi and M&S who used QR codes on juice packs for their discount promotion. The advantage of using QR was that it was easy to use where there was limited space on the packaging.

* MMS will grow … but it will continue to remain niche
10/10 – According to the MDA figures there was a rise of 11% in MMS usage in the UK between June 08 (44 million) and June 09 (49 million). In comparison to SMS it remains small.

* Mobile Couponing and Ticketing will increase
7/10 – Juniper predicts that 300 million people will be using them in the next 5 years. Many retail brands have recently taken the plunge into mobile coupons. However these have often been small scale trials. One problem that plagues such campaigns is the redemption issue, where stores cannot integrate barcodes or sales staff enter the wrong voucher number into the system.

* Network Operator Location Based Services (LBS) will NOT take off
8/10 – I predicted that the costs form network operators would be a major barrier to LBS. In that respect I was correct, however, LBS has taken off in mobile apps using the GPS built into smartphones. In the branded sector this has typically taken the form of store finders, although apps such as Last Minute’s NRU have shown how LBS can enhance a brand’s image.

• Mobile internet overtakes PC based internet use
5/10 – There are no current figures for the UK, however Europe and worldwide figures show significant growth in mobile internet usage. Newer developments such as the iphone and Twitter have driven this increase. Mobile will take over from fixed internet but it will take another few years before it happens.

* Mobile security will become a bigger issue
7/10 – It may not have made the headline news, but there were many examples of mobile phone ‘cracking’ and phishing attempts this year. Using technology company, 41st Parameter reported that the increase in both smartphones and mobile operating system has led to an increase in fraud attempts. Last year saw mobile banking phishing sites for the first time. In the UK, a number of unsolicited campaigns by accident claims companies and the sale of data by a T-Mobile employee led to greater media awareness of the problem.

* Targeted and Niche Advertising will grow
7/10 – There have been some significant changes in the mobile advertising sector: new operator initiatives, such as the Orange and Blyk partnership and Google’s acquisition of Admob. Although there has been some growth in the sector, the major ramp up in mobile advertising is predicted for 2010 and beyond.

• The Iphone will become ‘just another phone’
2/10 – Although Apple remains third placed in the smartphone market, behind Nokia and RIM’s Blackberry (for which I gabe myself the two points!), the iphone has consolidated it’s position as the handset by which all others are judged. It also won a ‘coolest brand’ of the year award in the UK. Similarly, brands, from Nike to NatWest, have made their iphone apps the centre of their mobile marketing initiatives.

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