What happened last year might be best summed up by a quote from Lenin, ‘there are decades when nothing happens and there are weeks when decades happen’. In the initial few months of the pandemic McKinsey found that video calling for work more than doubled, in what they described as a five-year technology leap. Zoom, the clear winner for video platforms, reported a jump in paid users from 10m in December 2019 to 200m by March 2020. Teams and Google Meet also saw large user increases and Slack’s paid customer base doubled in 2020.
More Tools for Digital Work and Personal Lives
With the significant increase in online working, there has been much discussion as to whether this shift represents a permanent change. Previously, companies have seen office-based jobs as a form of compliance, with working from home often regarded as a less productive option. The experience of 2020 has demonstrated the compliance argument is largely false. You don’t need to be sitting at an office desk to send emails or to join meetings. Observers suggest that post-pandemic, up to 20% of face-to-face work will permanently move online and many other jobs will be done through a hybrid online/office model. Even with some movement back into physical offices, 2021 will continue to see a growth in online work-related tools. One trend is the use of plug-ins that enhance the online presenter experience for video conferences and meetings. A good example is mmhmm (chosen, because you can say the brand name with your mouthful). The software replaces the camera in Zoom or Google Meet with the presenter, slides and videos managed in a single, integrated screen. It avoids the ‘can anyone see my screen’ situation, offering a much slicker presenter experience.
Changes in 2020 weren’t just about work. Ofcom data revealed that UK personal video calling jumped from 34% of users to over 70%, with a majority made on Facebook’s platforms, WhatsApp and Messenger. The app downloads reported by Apple and Google are also telling. In 2020 Zoom, TikTok and Disney+ were the most downloaded apps, highlighting our need to stay connected and be entertained. Amongst their most recommended apps were Endel (stress reduction) and Loona (sleep management), indicating an unsurprising trend for digitally-based well-being.
Most of us faced a rapid learning curve with online working, both getting to grips with the technology, but also finding the most effective ways in which to use it. That was often a process of individual discovery, supported by a greater sharing of life-hack solutions. It meant that in 2020 we all became innovators. Accenture’s future consultancy, Fjord, identified this trend as Do It Yourself Innovation highlighting bicycle repair pop-ups and online work-out platforms as examples of this. This innovation trend has also led bourgeoning hyperlocal businesses exemplified by artisanal food production such as micro-bakeries. It is an area that will likely buck the downward trend in physical retail. Although initially driven by necessity, DIY innovation offers considerable potential in the coming year. Digital platforms are providing opportunities to monetize innovative or creative endeavours. One example is TikTok’s partnership with Shopify. This is a significant development now that the platform has matured beyond lip sync and dance challenges.
More working from home has led to a shift in commuting patterns alongside a need for less infection-risky public transport (not to mention the urgent need to reduce carbon footprints). The drop in physical retail has also raised significant questions of the role of city centres. In many places there was an explosion of cycling, not just for commuting but also for pleasure, along with increased sales of electric bikes and scooters. Even in the UK, where electric scooters are largely not yet street legal, the retailer Halfords reported a three-fold increase in sales. The country also trialled electric scooter hire schemes in some cities. The evidence from both public transport use and housing purchase shows a move away from busy city centres to more localised approaches. Somewhat prophetically in early 2020, the mayor of Paris has proposed a concept called “ville du quart d’heure” – the quarter of an hour city – in which all the main amenities are available within a 15 minute walk or cycle ride. Many of these behaviour shifts appear permanent, so expect to see a rise in sales of electric personal vehicles alongside more localised, specialised retail in 2021.
Inevitably, the high level of video calling in 2020 brought its own specific problems. Broadly referred to as Zoom Anxiety there are considerable negative consequences of staring at a screen for hours. With fewer non-verbal signals there is much greater anxiety. Studies also found high levels of stress associated with the technology challenges that most of us experienced. 2020 also highlighted a digital divide. Moving meetings or education online reveals a host of inequalities in terms of connectivity, technology and even working/living spaces. Ofcom, for example, reported that over 50% of 75+ do not use the internet. That is a worrying sign in aging population, where isolation leads to poor mental health and increased mortality rates. In 2021 governments, technology providers, businesses and educators will need to take significant steps if they want to prevent further inequalities from the digital divide.
AI – The Good, The Bad and The Ugly
2020 also saw the inevitable march of artificial intelligence. Although we are currently at the machine learning, or weak AI stage, the last year saw many new examples of the potential that the technology has to offer. The Deep Mind AI found the solution to a long-standing conundrum on protein folding. Whilst that’s a specific application, a good demonstration of the possibilities for broader use were Adobe Photoshop’s Neural Filters. Although face swapping and ageing have been available in social media platforms for a while, Photoshop’s filters applied them with greater sophistication to high resolution images. Inevitably AI also had its fair share of blame. Its use to predict A level results led to a debacle in which the UK Prime Minister blamed it on a ‘rogue algorithm’. And herein lies the challenge for AI. There was nothing rogue about the algorithm, it functioned as it was programmed to do based on the parameters and the data that was provided. Technology will often be blamed for human problems, but as we move forward in the next year, there needs to be a broader understanding of the bias that is built into all algorithms and data*. Further challenges of AI were highlighted by Channel 4 with their alternative Christmas message for 2020. They created a deep fake version of The Queen to deliver a manipulated Xmas speech that demonstrated some of the dangers associated with the spread of these technologies.
The Dopamine Affect
Whilst the challenge of digital device addiction has been recognised for some years, the Netflix documentary, The Social Dilemma brought this to the fore. That was especially pertinent in a year when we spent more time online than ever before. There are many facets to the digital addiction challenge, but it can be summed up by the Like. These social affirmations generate small hits of dopamine that build addiction in much that same way as recreational drugs. It puts users in a constant state of low-level anxiety whereby they are continually seeking more dopamine hits – more likes. This addictive behaviour is monetized by the social media platforms who package it for advertisers to a point in which the user becomes the product. Understandably concerned, Facebook wrote a rebuttal to some of the points made in the documentary. They accused the programme of lacking nuance and scapegoating social media for wider societal problems. Arguably, if Facebook was that concerned about these issues they might simply remove or limit the Like button. Author and academic, Shoshanna Zuboff was interviewed in the Social Dilemma. Her book The Age of Surveillance Capitalism offers a more detailed argument on the challenges that social media create. 2021 will undoubtedly see the debate continue on the responsibility of the social media platforms, a need for greater moderation and continued calls to break up Facebook’s properties. It looks like it will be a year in which our relationship with technology will move forward and be questioned in equal measure.
* I would thoroughly recommend reading Hannah Fry’s excellent book Hello World. It gives a good understanding of how algorithms are made. And if you want to know more about data bias, have a look at the Caroline Priado-Perez’s Invisible Women and Safia Umoja Noble’s Algorithms of Oppression